Some one has problems with probability calc.
"49% before XMass and 51% shortly after" doesn't mean that there is 100% probability of release no later than "shortly after". It may be even released on Easter Egg with probability 83,5% since no one confirmed release just after Xmass.
Just to be not disappointed
PS. Curious what fun with rF2 we will get on XMass Maybe the video. I predicted that, hahaha
If the weather forecast says 20% chance of rain for each of the next 5 days, it may not rain at all (each day is independent). But, if you roll a die and say there's a 33.3% chance you'll roll 2 or less, and 66.6% of 3 or higher, you'll obviously satisfy one of those conditions.
I think it's fair to interpret Gjon's figures in the second way. Which all seems terribly off topic and of little consequence, but you started it
It's 'Xmas', by the way
BTW: there was also about 50% probability a year ago. I know Tim's statement is a kind of joke, or maybe even irony But I wouldn't count on those numbers too much. What is likely and sad that we will get no rF2 for XMass (promised this time). I don't want to believe it will not released even this year. But imo it's very possible - days between Xmass and NY are usually time off. But finally few days left or right... really doesn't matter. From my personal point of view rF2 has been TBA a lot of time so I started to doesn't care about this.
On that note once a Dev guy has read the notes on the Members Post the ability to "Check" that post would be very handy as they wont need to re-read every post everytime, dont think this Forum is that advanced though!
As I remenber this open beta is dedicated to moders... so It seems that only moding subject will have attention of ISI...WIKI, if it's dedicated to moder will have enoughy information to wait til the end of hollidays for more question....
I'm not a moder and will be pleased with 1 car and one track !!!
so come On Gjon RELEASED sooner..
My example of a weather forecast is the other intepretation: that which you've used, where 51% is the chance of it being released in some time shortly after xmas, with that probability then rising in subsequent periods if they eventuate. In the case of a weather forecast the overall time doesn't matter, I was merely illustrating a different 100% total; you could wake up to a 20% chance of rain every day for a whole year and not see a drop, because there isn't any guarantee of rain occurring.
Gjon meant it'll be released (open beta) either before xmas or shortly after, more likely after (but not by much). So your assertion that 'Some one has problems with probability calc.' is misplaced. In fact it's you who is misinterpreting the statement by turning the probability-joke into your incorrect probability calculation (by treating each probability as independent, when in fact they are components covering the entire set of outcomes)
But it's all good, we have nothing better to do...
I just said, be not surprised if 51% of probability will not be satisfied shortly after, or some one will say that those probabilities was given as independent. I'm prepared for such scenario, don't you?
I'm just even don't start disputing about what does 'shortly' mean
However I don't know what Gjon has meant to say. I'm glad somebody knows
Na, I'm throwing all caution to the wind. rF2 beta by Jan 20 or give up the PC completely
releases tutorial to get an impression of what's happening on release day. It's quite similar for mods and for software.
51% possibilities of got all my atention (and money) to GTR3.
Excuse my english, it's not very accurate
Once someone is happy ?, I am convinced that the day after the beta release one created a post asking if the full game comes out next week ?, we are children or adults? .....
Well that pretty much stopped the "When o' when" posts LOL
This is copied from the main page of ISI.
"The second installment in the rFactor
series is currently in development.
Find out more about rFactor 2 (TBA 2011)"
Or ISI does not tell the whole truth, I don't think this or the next few days we will hear the release of rfactor 2. Have 12 days to finish the year, so relaxed that the news should arrive soon. Tim we will confirm this.
Tim said a big truth, Open Beta will released before Xmas or few days after the holidays. If you don't watch nothing next week, then think that will be published in 2012.